This population explosion will have a vast impact on the provision of budget allocations and health and education facilities, as well as the availability of basic foodstuffs. As well, it will have a drastic impact on the ability to meet the traditional needs of infants and on the level of unemployment.

”If the quality of the increased populace is high, there will be no problem. However, if the quality is low, this will mean a burden to the state and society,” the Head of the National Family Planning Coordination Body (Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional: BKKBN), Sugiri Syarief, said in Jakarta last week.

From the aspect of health, for example, the cost of immunization will rise from Rp 791.6 billion in 2008 to Rp 1.4 trillion in 2015.

This is also true of the provision of foodstuffs calculated on the basis of the per capita consumption of 139.15 kilograms of rice per year.  By 2025, when the population reaches 273 million, the demand for rice is expected to reach as many as 38.85 million tons.  In other words, Indonesia will need to produce an additional 5 million tons of rice annually, or 15 percent more than the current production level of 33 million tons.

”Clearly, this is a serious problem for us as a people,” the Head of Foodstuff  Stocks for the Department of  Agriculture (Badan Ketahanan Pangan Departemen Pertanian), Achmad Suryana, said.

From the point of view of  education,  the operational costs for provision of basic education can be expected to rise drastically from Rp 100.3 trillion in 2008 to Rp 187.4 trillion in  2015.

Unemployment Threatens

The Head of the Demographic Institute at the School of Economy of the University of Indonesia, Suahasil Nazara, warned that the population explosion will have an impact on the number of unemployed people if it is not balanced by the opening up of adequate  job opportunities and fields of endeavor.  Currently, as many as 10 million people remain out of work, and most economic growth is occurring in sectors that do not absorb adequate levels of manpower. 

The high rate of unemployment also escalates the level of migration to areas where economic opportunities are available, such as the provinces of Riau and East Kalimantan.
 
In Riau Province, for example,  the population grew by an average of  4.05 percent in the period of  2000-2005.  In 1990, the population of Riau was only 2.7 million, rising to 3.7 million in 2000, while in 2008 the population stands at 5.07 million.
 
”It cannot be denied that the factor of economic opportunity is one of the migration drawing cards,” the Head of the Social Status Sector of  the Riau Statistics Center (Kepala Bidang Status Sosial Badan Pusat Statistik Riau), Rufiansyah Putera, said.  

Professor at the School of Public Health of the Department of Medicine at the University of Indonesia, Ascobat Gani, warned that poverty and malnutrition would be among the negative impacts of the current baby boom that would be felt by 2025, and that Indonesia would also have to eventually deal with the problem of the aging. 

”There will be 20 million elderly who will require high tech expensive hospital-based  services, which cannot be handled by health centers or clinics. They will also require the services of specialists in degenerative diseases.  This will draw on the budget, while we are also trying to deal with the impact of the baby boom,” Ascobat explained.

Diminished Commitment

Sugiri Syarief warned that a second baby boom wave could occur if the "Family Planning program doesn’t get enough support”.  Another issue is that the position, structure and authority of  the current National Family Planning Coordination Body (BKKBN) is different than in the New Order period. It is currently under the authority of regional administrations rather than the central government.  Unfortunately, a number of the regional administrations lack a serious commitment toward handling population issues. 
 
”Since the end of the New Order, the Family Planning body has been attached to other bodies, such as the mortuary agency of the civil registry.  The regency and municipal administrations have very little concern for this,” said Sugiri.

For these reasons, the number of Family Planning clients has dropped to below the figure of 10 years ago.  The percentage of fertile-age people practicing Family Planning has also tended to decrease. In 1998 70.4 percent of the child-bearing age populace took part in Family Planning, while only 69.6 percent are currently involved. 

Countering Population Explosion

With the threat of a second baby boom wave, according to Ascobat Gani, Indonesia must take seriously take concerted action to solve the problem. He advised that the Family Planning Program be revitalized to counter the population explosion.

During the New Order there were 35,000 Family Planning field workers, while, three years ago, there remained only 19,000, with a minor increase to the current level of 21,000.  “This number is still far too low,” Ascobat said.

In order to overcome this field worker shortage, the staff members of local integrated health centers (posyandu) and village security staffers have been trained to promote Family Planning, and to register people as new clients for the program. The supply of contraceptives is also being integrated to ensure availability.  The Family Planning strategy can clearly not be left to generalization.

The structure of the National Family Planning Coordination Body (Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional: BKKBN) in the regions must also be clarified.  There is now only Regional Regulation No. 41/2007 concerning Regional Organizations.

From the point of view of foodstuff stocks, Achmad Suryana emphasized that there was no alternative for the Indonesian people but to diversify their foodstuffs.  This, however, would not mean “downgrading” the quality of foodstuffs, for example from rice to tubers, but, rather, diversifying toward better quality foodstuffs; for example, consuming more protein in the form of meat, eggs and fish.  (LOK/SAH/BRO/MAS/THY)